Several countries across the Greater Horn of Africa(GHA) are expected to experience moderate rainfall between March 11 and March 18, 2026, even as elevated heat stress is projected in parts of South Sudan and neighboring regions.
According to the latest IGAD Climate Predictions and Applications Center (ICPAC) regional outlook, moderate rainfall of 50-200 millimeters is expected across most of Rwanda, Burundi, and Tanzania, with additional rainfall likely in parts of south-western Kenya, southern Uganda, and south-western Ethiopia.
Meanwhile, lighter rainfall of less than 50 millimeters is forecast across most areas of southern South Sudan, central to northern Uganda, central to southern Ethiopia, southern Kenya, and coastal regions of Somalia. Meteorological agencies note that 1 millimeter of rainfall is equivalent to one liter of water per square meter of land surface.
Areas likely to receive above-normal rainfall
Forecast models indicate higher-than-usual rainfall across eastern Tanzania, central Uganda, south-western Kenya, parts of Ethiopia, and southern South Sudan.
However, below-average rainfall is expected in parts of western Tanzania, central to eastern Rwanda, central to western Burundi, and eastern Kenya.
Some areas of Tanzania could experience particularly intense rainfall, with projected totals exceeding the 90th percentile in parts of the country’s northern and southern regions.
These conditions increase the likelihood of flooding, particularly in flood-prone zones of south-eastern and north-central Tanzania.
Temperature outlook
High temperatures above 32°C are projected across the central and eastern parts of South Sudan. Most other areas across the region are expected to experience moderate to high temperatures, ranging from 20°C to 32°C.
In contrast, milder temperatures below 20°C are anticipated over the Ethiopian highlands, central to western Kenya, and parts of western Rwanda and Burundi, largely due to higher elevation.
Temperature anomaly forecasts suggest that warmer-than-average conditions will dominate across much of the Greater Horn of Africa, while cooler-than-normal temperatures are expected in highland regions.
Heat stress concerns
The outlook also warns of elevated heat stress, particularly across central to northern South Sudan, where conditions are expected to fall within the Extreme Caution category, bordering the Danger threshold.
Similar heat stress levels may also be experienced in eastern Tanzania, eastern Kenya, and south-western Somalia, raising concerns for vulnerable populations, outdoor workers, and livestock.
Meteorologists advise communities in affected regions to remain alert to both heavy rainfall and extreme heat, which could affect health, agriculture, and water systems across parts of the region during the forecast period.
