Based on the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Center (ICPAC) forecast, between September 3rd and 10th, 2025, the Greater Horn of Africa is forecast to experience significant rainfall alongside warmer-than-average temperatures, with heightened risks of flooding and heat stress across several countries.
Heavy downpours exceeding 200 millimetres are expected over western Ethiopia and western South Sudan. Moderate rainfall, ranging between 50 and 200 millimetres, is likely in central to northern Uganda, central to western South Sudan, southern Sudan, western Ethiopia, and western Kenya.
Lighter showers, with amounts below 50 millimeters, may occur in central Sudan, southern Uganda, and along the coastal areas of Somalia, Kenya, and Tanzania.
Compared to the seasonal norm, wetter-than-usual conditions are projected in southern Sudan, western South Sudan, northern Uganda, western Kenya, and parts of Ethiopia, while some areas in eastern South Sudan and southern Uganda may receive below-average rainfall.
Exceptional rainfall, among the highest 10 percent on record, is anticipated in southwestern Sudan, northwestern South Sudan, and western Ethiopia, increasing the likelihood of flooding in already vulnerable regions.
Temperatures are also expected to rise. Very hot conditions above 32°C are forecast in central and northern Sudan, the Afar region of Ethiopia, and along the Red Sea coast.
Moderate to high temperatures of 20–32°C will prevail across much of South Sudan, Uganda, Somalia, southeastern Ethiopia, eastern and northern Kenya, and Tanzania.
Cooler conditions, below 20°C, are expected in central Ethiopia, central to southwestern Kenya, and central Tanzania.
However, heat stress is projected to intensify in most parts of Sudan, northern South Sudan, Ethiopia’s Afar region, Djibouti, coastal Eritrea, and northern Somalia.
Overall, the forecast highlights a period of heavy rains and elevated temperatures across the Greater Horn of Africa, raising concerns for communities, agriculture, and livelihoods.
Authorities and humanitarian actors are encouraged to remain vigilant in view of the potential impacts and ensure limited losses to livelihoods and infrastructure.
