Urbanization is increasing at a pace that urban planning in many cities cannot easily accommodate. Consequently, infrastructure and development often remain poorly regulated, especially in informal settings that are on a surge. This oversight in construction patterns, building positions, and materials has proven dangerous, particularly considering the unprecedented climate change events like the recent floods in the East African region.
The East African region has faced multiple episodes of torrential rainfall just months after a prolonged drought unseen in forty years causing floods. These floods have had devastating effects, particularly in rapidly urbanizing areas on flood-prone lands. The rapid urbanization, especially in large informal areas, has amplified flood risks.
The recent rainfall led to rivers overflowing and landslides in highland regions, affecting more than 750,000 people and displacing hundreds of thousands. At least 291 people have died in Kenya and 155 in Tanzania. Many of these impacts occurred in large, highly populated cities, particularly in the informal settlements of Nairobi. Across East Africa, the heavy downpours notably killed 4,000 livestock and destroyed up to 27,000 acres of crops.
In collaboration with the World Weather Attribution group, researchers from Kenya, the Netherlands, Germany, Sweden, Denmark, and the United Kingdom, assessed the extent to which human-induced climate change altered the likelihood and intensity of the rainfall. They declared the rainfall an adverse occurrence but found no evidence that El Niño or the Indian Ocean Dipole influenced this year’s event.
The rapid urbanization, with houses built in flood-prone regions such as riverbanks, riparian lands, and wetlands, has exacerbated the impacts of the floods. In the context of increasing rainfall events due to climate change, urban planning that accounts for growing informal populations is crucial to mitigate the risk to human lives.
The study highlights that the flooding affected areas around Lake Tanganyika, Lake Victoria, the central highlands (including Nairobi), the southeast lowlands of Kenya, and coastal Tanzania from late March to most of April.
March-April 2024 according to the CHIRPS gridded data product. The study region is outlined in red.
Land-use changes, including deforestation and conversion to agricultural land, have also contributed to flood risk at varying degrees in the countries studied. These changes have led to significant losses and damages due to inadequate structural protections from the rains, leaving residents without resources to recover and rebuild.
Julie Arrighi, Associate Director at the Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre, emphasizes the dual pressure from rapid urbanization and changing climate risks across cities in East Africa.
She notes that East Africa, one of the fastest urbanizing regions in the world, must address these challenges as the pressure from rapid growth continues to mount.
The researchers stress that countries in East Africa must continue building resilience against floods in cities and growing urban areas. Improving existing infrastructure, restoring ecosystems, and implementing social policies are essential strategies to help people cope with floods and achieve long-term resilience.
Disaster preparedness policies, flood preparedness, and protection infrastructure, and early warning systems that are in place across Kenya, Tanzania, and Burundi are all steps in the right direction but must be integrated and implemented at scale to reduce impacts
