As global efforts to decarbonize shipping intensify, upcoming negotiations at the International Maritime Organization (IMO) are emerging as a critical turning point for Africa’s economic and climate trajectory.
African maritime leaders are warning that the outcome of these talks will directly shape the continent’s trade competitiveness, cost of living, and access to climate finance. It’s apparent that the maritime sector holds high stakes for the African continent with diverse and vast impacts.
Maritime transport, carrying more than 90 per cent of Africa’s external trade, makes shipping the backbone of the continent’s integration into global markets. Any shift in global maritime regulations, particularly those tied to emissions, will therefore have immediate and far-reaching consequences.
Speaking at a regional meeting in Mombasa convened by the Association of African Maritime Administrations, Kenya’s Special Envoy for Climate Change, Ali Mohamed, emphasized the need for Africa to position itself strategically amid growing geopolitical tensions shaping the negotiations.
He cautioned that decisions made without Africa’s input risk increasing logistics costs, disrupting trade flows, and weakening the competitiveness of African exports.
IMO Negotiation Landscape of Economic Risks and Uneven Impacts
The IMO’s proposed Net Zero Framework seeks to cut greenhouse gas emissions from shipping, an industry responsible for about 3% of global emissions, through cleaner fuels and possible carbon pricing mechanisms.
However, negotiations have been marked by deep divisions. A proposed global carbon levy on shipping emissions, seen as a key tool to both curb pollution and raise billions for climate action, has faced strong opposition.
Reports indicate that pressure from powerful economies, particularly the United States, has influenced several countries to withdraw support, leading to delays in adoption.
The postponement of key decisions in 2025 highlights how fragile the consensus is and raises uncertainty ahead of the next round of talks, which are deemed essential for navigating forward.
For Africa, these geopolitical dynamics pose a major risk: rules may ultimately be shaped by competing global interests rather than the continent’s development needs.
An Africa-focused assessment by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) highlights the potential economic implications of the IMO’s emissions reduction measures.
The analysis, covering countries including Kenya, Ghana, Nigeria, and Malawi, suggests that most policy scenarios could negatively affect GDP, trade volumes, and consumer prices, particularly if additional costs from emissions regulations are passed on through shipping.
Higher freight costs could translate into increased prices for essential goods, disproportionately affecting vulnerable populations.
However, the study also points to a pathway for mitigating these impacts: well-designed carbon levies with revenue redistribution could help offset economic losses and support a more equitable transition.
A Call for African Unity and Preparedness
African maritime authorities are now pushing for stronger coordination and a unified negotiating position during the IMO sessions.
Omae Nyarandi, Director General of the Kenya Maritime Authority and chair of AAMA, described the shift to low-carbon shipping as a defining moment. Although he emphasized a warning that regulations crafted without considering Africa’s realities could deepen existing inequalities in global trade.
Officials from the African Union Commission echoed this sentiment, stressing that maritime transport remains central to Africa’s industrialization and regional integration agenda.
Participants at the Mombasa forum then outlined the shared priorities, identified investment needs, and developed a common African position to guide engagement at the IMO.
With key IMO discussions expected in the coming months, Africa faces a narrowing window to influence global maritime policy.
The stakes extend beyond emissions reduction. At the heart of the negotiations lies a broader question: whether the global transition to green shipping will be equitable, or whether it will deepen existing economic divides.
For Africa, securing a fair outcome will depend on unity, technical preparedness, and the ability to navigate an increasingly complex geopolitical landscape.
