Efforts to make humanity an interplanetary species have rebounded with the increased use of commercial spacecraft.
However, as humans go above and beyond our planetary home, this comes at an expense: the growth of space debris and re-entry emissions from the return of infrastructure to Earth have unintended consequences for the stratosphere and other environmental issues.
The United Nations 2024 Global Foresight Report on planetary health and human wellbeing outlined critical global shifts that are accelerating the triple planetary crisis of climate change, which are, biodiversity & nature loss, pollution, and waste; spotlighting the rapid expansion of space activity and orbital space debris.
Studies show that the global space industry will grow to US$3.7 trillion by 2040. In 2024 alone, SpaceX for instance, has been extremely active, targeting over 150 launches. By 2023, SpaceX had already completed 98 launches, delivering 80% of the global payload mass to orbit with ambitions to begin manned missions as early as 2029.
However, emissions from rockets launched in the upper atmosphere have nearly 500 times the warming potential of surface and aircraft emissions.
The report further shows that the expansion in commercial spacecraft has signaled an increase in demand for critical resources, contributed to climate change through emissions of Greenhouse gases, affected stratospheric radioactive forcing, and increased pollution.
Moreover, rocket launches and re-entry emit combustion emissions including carbon dioxide, water vapor, and nitrogen oxides, black carbon (BC) from carbon-based solid and hypergolic fuels and kerosene, and alumina particles and gaseous chlorine from solid fuels; a number of these combustion emissions are ozone depleting.
To combat this crisis, it is best to create an enabling environment for better decision-making by creating new social contracts, adapting agile and adaptive governance, and increasing integrated accessible data and knowledge. This eventually cultivates foresight.
“Foresight enables a shift in perspective, opening up valuable insights and revealing unconsidered or underestimated threats and opportunities to achieve planetary health and human wellbeing,” says Inger Andersen, Executive Director, UNEP.
She further highlights that foresight enables the international community to anticipate shocks and disruptions that the world should prepare for.
Additionally, monitoring is needed to ensure that the solid progress made on protecting the ozone layer through the Montreal Protocol is not undone. Consequently, technological advancements are being made with ambitions to begin manned missions as early as 2029.
This timeline is based on advancements in the Starship spacecraft, which is designed to be fully reusable for transporting humans and cargo to Mars and back.
Other environmental impacts, such as light pollution and infrastructure impacts, also require monitoring, as the benefits of communications and earth observations could be undermined. Furthermore, fostering foresight and adaptive governance can enhance decision-making and reduce potential risks, ensuring the sustainable development of space exploration while safeguarding Earth’s ecological balance.
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